Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Canadian Market Notes - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Just some thumbnail notes on news items today that show just how scattered the Canadian communications market is....

The GOOD - the Globe & Mail reported that Miranda Technologies is prepping for its IPO next week. This is being touted as "one of the biggest" in Canada since the dot bomb days, and is only the second tech IPO of note since that time. Incredible, huh? Talk about a market going away. Interestingly, as the article notes, the other IPO was March Networks, whose IPO was in April. Gee, you'd think they would have done theirs in March....

Anyhow, both companies are IP plays, which I think says a lot about what the market will put their money in. Let's hope the investment bankers have more of these lined up - we've got a lot of great companies up here, and it's my job to tell you about 'em...

The BAD - Manitoba Telecom's announced job cuts on their investor conference call yesterday. The positive spin is this is part of their $100 million "Transition Phase II Plan" - a fancy way of saying that the economics of IP are working against them, and they've got to get with the program. Translation - big time cost cutting, including 800 jobs. Manitoba Telecom (MTS) has taken on a lot by acquiring Allstream and trying to create a national carrier out of this mix. Very tough to do, and I really don't think the market here can support 3 telcos trying to be national operators. MTS is quick to point out that a lot of this pain is coming from the loss of long distance traffic they were carrying for Rogers. This is going away now that Rogers has acquired CallNet, whose networks will now inherit this traffic. This is true, but Rogers is just one customer, and the root cause issues are much bigger and deeper. Allstream has some great solutions - don't get me wrong - but I think the plan is too grand...

The UGLY - RIM. This isn't an IP story, but RIM's woes continue to mount - first NTP in the US, and now Inpro in the UK. RIM is probably the successor to Nortel as Canada's high tech pride and joy, but lately it's been looking like they're both on the same elevator going down. Let's hope not, but RIM looks to have its hands full in court for a while.

Skype at 38,000 Feet - This Stuff Works

Uberblogger and IP comrade Andy Abramson is a busy guy, and really knows how to use technology to stay in touch. He's been living the digital life longer and better than anyone I know, so I wasn't blown away Skyping with him the other day, but it sure was neat. Andy was enroute to Europe and Skyped me to catch up on things. Basically, he used the Boeing FlyNet Connexxion Service, which provides the WiFi signal, and voila - sky high Skype.

Good thing Boeing didn't partner with Boingo - that would be a fun name to work out...BoBoing??? BoingBo??? Bo2???? Never mind.....

Andy provides his own account first hand about Skyping from the clouds here.

I should add of course that he's not the first one to do this. Jeff Pulver posted about doing the same several months ago, and in both cases it was great to hear about how seamless the user experience was and how the quality held up so well. Skype may be getting lost in the eBay abyss - the ebyss??? - but you can't deny there's value in something that works so well. Of course there are much bigger issues looming for Skype that are not just about technology - and Andy has some great insights on this.

Canadian Podcast Series - Technology and the Electoral Process

This week's Canadian IP podcast had yet another interesting twist. Our Liberal government has been on shaky ground lately, and on Monday, they did not survive a non-confidence vote. This was not a huge surprise, and much to the public's chagrin, Canada enters the Xmas holiday season with an election on its hands.

All of a sudden we're in election mode, and I had the good fortune to speak with someone yesterday who's very connected to how technology is impacting the electoral process. So, the topic was very timely, and it was a nice way to dovetail another aspect of how technologies like IP are playing a role in daily life - sometimes visibly, and sometimes under the hood.

My guest yesterday was Ed Hetu. He's in independent IT consultant in the Ottawa area, and has been doing electoral work for many years at both the federal and provincial level. Ed provided some great insights on how IP and IP-related technologies are making the process of managing elections easier. He noted that the real problems are more social and psychological than technical, since most of what he's involved with is behind the scenes.

Most people are quite comfortable and familiar with manually-completed ballots, and there is still some suspicion around electronic or online balloting. While the potential for abuse and security leaks is real, Ed notes that there is a silver lining to all these advances. If used effectively, technology can enrich the democratic process by making it easier for the public to vote more often and on a wider variety of issues. Elections, polls, referenda, etc. can be conducted quickly and inexpensively, opening the door for wider participation in our daily political life. This isn't all about IP, but it's certainly a part of it, and I have no doubt that IP will find a good home in the government sector once its potential is better understood and issues such as privacy, integrity and security are properly addressed.

The VON Radio folks managed to turn this one around in record time, so the post is ready for listening now. Thanks Mikey!

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Canadian Blog Awards - Vote for Your Faves Now

Who ever thought there was such a thing? Well, there is, and I'm coming around to this after seeing posts from Alec Saunders and Mark Evans about it. Both have been nominated - deservedly so! - in the Business category, and you can now vote for your favorite blog across several categories in addition to Business.

Following Alec's post today about voting, I see that I too have made the grade, and am also a nominee in the Business category. I'm not in the uberblogger class, but am certainly happy to be in the mix. I should also note another nominee with strong IP content - Rob Hyndman - who has turned up on some of my postings.

Don't worry - you can vote once a day until December 11, so if you can't decide which one you like the best, you can spread the love around. However, to really be heard, Round 1 voting ends tomorrow - Wednesday - so vote now!!!

Monday, November 28, 2005

Canadian Podcast Series - Stefan Dubowski on Enterprise IP

Last week's VON Radio podcast was with Stefan Dubowski, Managing Editor of Telemanagement magazine. The long weekend has delayed getting the link ready, but it's available now - click here to listen.

Stefan has covered the Canadian telecom market for a long time, primarily on the enterprise side, and we talked about the state of IP adoption. He's got a pretty good feel for the pulse of the market and what his readers are looking for with IP.

We both agreed that takeup has been weaker than anticipated, and that our market lags the US considerably. Stefan's outlook is more reserved than mine, but we both agree more needs to be done from all sides to educate and stimulate the market for IP.

Sunday, November 27, 2005

About Me

I get comments regularly from people who can't contact me directly from my blog - it's a problem I've been meaning to address for some time. I'm working on this now, and hope to have it fixed this week. Until then, below is a brief overview of what I do and how to reach me:

My company is J Arnold & Associates. I'm an independent analyst/consultant focused on the IP communications sector, and am based in Toronto. I've been covering IP full time since 2001, initially as the VoIP Program Leader for analyst firm Frost & Sullivan. I returned to my indie consulting roots in March 2005, and provide a range of consulting, market research and writing services for clients in this space.

Just wanted to add that my blog is a Nominee in the Business category for the 2005 Canadian Blog Awards. You can review the nominees here!


Blog Awards.jpg


I would also like to add that Jeff Pulver has included my blog in his list of "Top VoIP Blogs of 2005". Thanks Jeff!


My website is being developed now, and will fully outline my capabilities, background and upcoming initiatives. It will also provide a listing of my recent media citings and articles. Most importantly, the website will explain how my services are being positioned for various communities within the IP market, namely vendors, service providers, VCs/investment banks and PR/marketing agencies. Look for my website in early 2006.

Until then, feel free to contact me directly:
jon@jarnoldassociates.com

Friday, November 25, 2005

Saved by the PhoneGnome

Just a small slice-of-life experience to share about my PhoneGnome. I had some small false starts getting this to work in my home office, and their tech support has been great, but we're fine now.

One of the things I really like about PhoneGnome is how you get the best of both worlds with POTS and VoIP. When you place a call using PhoneGnome, a cute voice informs you if the call is local PSTN, on-net with other PhoneGnome users, or long distance. After that, the call goes through just like normal, and there are no extra digits to dial. Very convenient.

Well, we got our first real taste of winter here in Toronto this week, and the power went out yesterday afternoon. It just so happens that this occurred while I was in the middle of a call with my PhoneGnome line. All around me, the lights went out, the modem went quiet, my PC screen dimmed as I went to battery power, Skype went out, and the screens for my IP phones went dark. I'm sure you've all been through this a few times!

That said, my call continued as if nothing happened. Of course, it was a PSTN call - an on-net call to another PhoneGnome user would have died - I think. When the power went out, I heard a short click sound on the line, which must have been the PhoneGnome cutting out, but the call continued as is. Am not sure if PhoneGnome can do a PSTN failover, and automatically port an IP call over to PSTN if the network goes down - would probably have to have a battery backup for that.

Anyhow, I just thought it was great that my call didn't die, which of course, would have been the case if I was using most broadband phone services. Operators like Bell Canada and EarthLink are offering line-powered VoIP to get around this, but the majority do not.

So, for those of you thinking about replacing your POTS with VoIP outright, I'd say think again - unless you have reliable alternatives, namely a cell phone with some battery life on it.

There's another side to this story that vindicates the tech luddite in me. I have never trusted machines of any kind (there's a classic Woody Allen routine about this from his standup days - don't get me started - "So, I gather all of my possessions for a meeting in my living room..."). We have way too many phones in the house, but I always keep an old one around - the kind that doesn't run off electric power - for emergencies or blackouts. Well, I just bought a reconditioned Nortel Vista 100 for this purpose, and that's what's connected to the PhoneGnome. So, while the PhoneGnome did its job, the real reason the call stayed alive was the Vista phone. Score a point for the old guard!

So, the moral of the story for having a bulletproof contingency plan that optimizes the use of POTS and VoIP is to have a line-powered phone with your PhoneGnome.