Friday, May 13, 2005

VoIP Off and Running in Canada Now

Just a quick coda to yesterday's CRTC decision.

With yesterday's news, it's like the starting gun has fired, and everyone is off to the races - except the incumbents, of course. I would never count them out, that's for sure. They have plenty of resources and smarts to prevent them from being outflanked by competitors, and will certainly play their cards when ready. Until then, the beneficiaries of the CRTC ruling will be in the spotlight.

Two telltale signs that VoIP is out of the blocks now....

1. I'm hearing radio ads for Vonage. Heard them yesterday and this morning. They know the regs are in their favor, and they want consumers to know Vonage is available now. That's good marketing. And of course, just the fact that they're using mainstream media - anyone can do Internet ads. So, it looks like Vonage's $200 million is going to work right away!

2. My Mother called me today asking about VoIP. She's been hearing me talk about VoIP for years now, and finally it's starting to register. It's been in all the papers today, so the public is getting their first taste of what's coming. So, as with other new technologies, when your Mother starts talking about it, you know it's arrived. The pragmatist would also say it's time to sell! I wouldn't. VoIP is just getting started - it's time to buy.

Another indicator is the overall media coverage on the CRTC ruling. I appeared on ROB TV this morning - this is our main financial news network - similar to CNBC in the US. The web replay is only posted for a week, so click now if you want to see it!

Also, Ben Charny of CNET News cited me in his piece earlier today.

Thursday, May 12, 2005

Canada's VoIP Decision - Competition Rules

The news came as expected this afternoon - the CRTC will uphold its position, and competitors do not have to fear being squeezed out of the market by the incumbents - at least for now.

So, short term, competitors are the winners - cablecos, ISPs and virtual operators. The incumbents will have to watch the first wave come as competitors rush in and take what they can before incumbents can counter. It will be fascinating to watch, but in the end the consumer should come out ahead with more choice than they've ever had before. I supsect the early going will be about price and cheap telephony, which of course undermines the real value of IP. Once we get past this, things will get interesting, and hopefully more compelling in terms of cools features and apps.

Going to the source, here's the press release issued by the CRTC on the ruling after the lockup this afternoon in Gatineau, which is near Ottawa.

More on this tomorrow. I'll be commenting about the ruling at 8:15 in the morning on ROB TV, our major financial news channel.

Big Day for VoIP in Canada

Today will likely be marked as the inflection point for VoIP's arrival in Canada, and perhaps more importantly, the end of the ILEC's monopoly hold on local service.

Later this afternoon, the CRTC will announce their long awaited decision on VoIP, and it's widely expected to favor the competitors, and not the incumbents. I've commented on this already in last week's postings, and won't rehash the basic issues here.

Presuming it goes that way, the public hearings from last September will have been for naught, and effectively delayed the market by about a year. In hindsight, I'm sure the competitors don't really mind, as they needed that time anyway to get their offerings right, and to properly complete their trials. And it seems to be paying off.

Not surprisingly, there has been lots of news leading up to today's decision. Two in particular....

First is the Rogers acquisition of Call Net for $330 million. Ted Rogers has always been his own man, and he continues to confound Bell Canada, his main rival here in Ontario.

Call Net is a mixed bag, and in Canada, they carry the Sprint name. Financially they're not in great shape, and about 40% of their revenues come from the declining long distance market. So, why buy, and why now?

Well, the timing lines up nicely with the CRTC date. Presuming it goes as expected, this will be good news for Rogers, and what better way to announce "I'm ready to go" than with this acquisition? Call Net has about 500,000 subscribers, so that puts them into the telecom business right away. Furthermore, they have a good presence in the business market, where Rogers does not yet play. So, this opens up another market, where they'll be going up against Bell again, as well as the likes of Telus and Allstream.

Another interesting twist is that Call Net gives them customers in markets they don't serve with cable. So, now they can be an irritant to cable competitors like Shaw or Videotron - or possibly make a deal with them.

And one cannot overlook the simple fact that acquiring Call Net further consolidates the market, and keeps it out of competitor hands. And really, in the telecom market, a $330 million buyout is not that big of a deal. So, Rogers may be acquiring a good business in decline, but at a manageable cost, and probably little downside risk.

For those not familiar with Rogers, this just adds one more piece to their growing presence in telecom. With their recent Microcell acquisition, they became the number 1 wireless provider in Canada. And with VoIP coming, Call Net will help jump start them on the wireline path. I can't think of any cableco that has this kind of reach, and you have to admire what they're doing. No doubt, Bell is not happy, especially since they could have locked up market leadership in wireless if they had taken Microcell. And here comes Rogers, again, putting another stake in Bell's sandbox.


Second is the Videotron's growing VoIP traction. Today they are reporting about 23,000 subscribers, again, timed nicely for the CRTC ruling. Considering their service is only available in parts of Montreal, and it's only been on the market a few months, their numbers look very positive. In fact, as they report, demand is so strong they can't keep up in terms of providing the hardware and getting technicians onsite to cutover the phone lines from Bell to Videotron.

I still find their pricing plans complicated, and once you add up all the costs, I'm not so sure the savings are that great. However, they clearly seemed to have struck a chord, although it's hard to tell if people are buying on price or they just want an alternative to Bell. I doubt Videotron is making money with VoIP, but they certainly seem to be taking away access lines from Bell, which is a new thing. Bell has experienced a minor loss in access lines - about 150,000 - which is really nothing compared to what the RBOCs are experiencing. To date, Bell's line losses have been to wireless, but I'd say the Videotron numbers are the first notable dent to their wireline numbers from another wireline source. Of course, Vonage and Primus are eating into this as well, but their numbers are not public, so it's harder to say how much pain they really are causing Bell.

So, on this day in particular, Bell no doubt has a lot of cable on its mind. Between Rogers in Ontario and Videotron in Quebec, the future looks anything but simple for Bell. I couldn't resist saying that! Bell has a nice ad campaign running now celeberating 125 years in Canada, and "simplicity" is their key theme.

Friday, May 6, 2005

CRTC VoIP Decision Attracting More Attention

Just a quick post. Spoke to Ben Charny of CNET News this afternoon about the upcoming CRTC ruling on VoIP. He ran a story today about it, and cited my May 4 blog posting as an indication that the ruling will favor the competition over the incumbents.

It's great to see such an important ruling getting this kind of attention from south of the border. No doubt there will be more to come, especially after the ruling, which is slated for May 12.

Timing is everything. Turns out I'm meeting Vonage Canada that day for lunch, and I suspect they'll be in a good mood. I'll let you know if we have steak or hamburger.

Thursday, May 5, 2005

Vonage - Today's Funding Raises the Stakes

I don't usually get news this fresh, but Vonage has just raised another $200 million, which sends a clear signal they are in the deep end of the VoIP pool now.

One has to wonder where this all leads to, but it's pretty clear that an IPO is not in the cards for Vonage any time soon. This funding will go a long way to keeping them in the game as the stakes are getting much higher now. With this kind of money, they can keep spending to acquire subscribers, but it's hard to see how their cost per subscriber will ever get low enough to make them profitable.

That said, they really need to go for broke, or go home. In the US, they have emerged as the undisputed leader in terms of subscribers among the pure plays. CallVantage barely cracked 50,000, and Lingo isn't much further ahead of that. And among the virtual operators like 8x8, Voicelgo, Voicepulse, etc., I doubt the sum total of all their subs would be much more than a few months of growth for Vonage.

At this stage of the game, I'd say Vonage is the great white hope among VoIP pure plays, but they'll be hard pressed to maintain the 50% market share they have achieved until now. Realistically, the US consumer VoIP market is about Vonage and the telco and cableco majors. AOL has a large enough subscriber base to be a force, but I think it's late in the game for them, and they're really into VoIP to retain their existing - albeit diminishing - customer base, rather than ramp up with new customers.

Aside from this news, Vonage also had good news this week in terms of Verizon and getting access to their networks for 911. In light of their recent 911 problems, this is a good sign for all the pure plays, but esp for Vonage now that they have a new war chest to play with.

At minimum, today's news buys Vonage time - at least 6 months, I'd say, to stake out their space in VoIP amidst the inevitable onslaught of bundle-mania that will hit the market from the MSOs and RBOCs. This funding certainly pre-empts them being taken out of the market any time soon, so now it's all about keeping up with Tier 1s, and finding a way to battle the bundle.

I like their move with UT Starcomm, and I'd say, the sooner the better to make it interesting for the competition. Another thought - use some of that money to acquire really good apps developers who can create exciting offerings that take advantage of VoIP and mobility.

Wednesday, May 4, 2005

Canada's VoIP Regulations Update - Calling Michael Powell....

May 12 is the magic date for the CRTC's ruling on the status of VoIP, and the telecom and cable operators are all waiting anxiously. The ruling could come any time before the 12th - or maybe not until after. Regardless, the consensus is that this has gone on too long, and these delays have no doubt held back the progress of VoIP for Canadian consumers.

There are a variety of reasons as to why VoIP in Canada lags the US, and this is certainly one of them. This scenario may seem odd to Americans - and most other countries for that matter - as the trend just about everywhere has been to not regulate, and just use a "light touch" as the FCC would say.

I don't pretend to have all the answers, and no one knows for sure how the rulings will go. Over the past few days, I've been talking to others about it - analysts, carriers, vendors - and am seeing a fairly consistent picture. Unfortunately, it's not one that Michael Powell would have drawn.

My sense is that the status quo will prevail from the CRTC, and that's the story I'm hearing from others as well. Essentially, this means that the Canadian ILECs will be held to a different set of rules and regs than everyone else, which ultimately makes it impossible for them to be competitive in offering VoIP to consumers.

So while everyone else can offer unregulated VoIP - cablecos, virtual operators, ISPs - the incumbents will have to offer VoIP on the same basis they offer POTS to consumers. This means they have to file tariffs in advance to make pricing changes, they have to provide carrier grade QoS, they have to provide 911, and they would be regulated on winback promotions to re-capture subscribers recently lost to competitors.

Because the ILECs are so dominant in Canada, regulatory policy here is largely driven by the need to support competition and choice for the consumer. Like the US, Canada has a handful of big ILECs, with Bell, Telus and Aliant accounting for most of the market. Competition has existed here for some time, but the impact has been negligible as the incumbents still control something like 98% of access lines. In that context, it's understandable why the CRTC wants to support competition.

The incumbents would argue that their market power in POTS does not necessarily translate to VoIP, and it's unfair to give everyone else an advantage - especially when most of them are large cablecos, ISPs or carriers, namely Rogers, Shaw, Videotron, AOL Canada and Call Net (Sprint Canada). And among the pure play virtual operators, Vonage and Primus are the leading players, and are not fledgling startups. All of these operators can market VoIP any way they choose, and they all have the capability to take a piece of the incumbent's market.

If the regulations stand, it would appear that the cablecos stand to gain the most, and the incumbents stand to lose the most. Rogers will probably emerge as the strongest competitor, simply because they play in the largest, richest market, and they're the only cableco I know who can truly offer the Quad Play. In fact, Rogers is the largest wireless operator in Canada. I don't think any US MSO can compete as well as Rogers in this regard. Of course, execution is another story, and it remains to be seen who has the best game plan and value proposition.

So, what's a Bell or a Telus to do in this scenario? On paper, they could just go out of region and offer unregulated VoIP in each other's markets. That's not likely to happen, and it would never be economical. More likely, they will focus on the brand and reinforce that consumers know what they're getting with them. And of course, they'll tinker with the bundles, and try make LD as inexpensive as possible to offset VoIP's natural price advantage. But will they offer VoIP as a POTS replacement? The economics wouldn't be there, but maybe they could offer it as a cheap second line that's really feature rich, with cool applications that are ahead of what everyone else has. Of course, we don't know what those cool apps will be, but if anyone has the resources to find out, it's the incumbents. Maybe they should also see what advice Michael Powell might have for them - I think they're going to need it.

Stay tuned.

Sunday, May 1, 2005

<strong>RLECs � What the <em>Other</em> 1,500 Carriers Are Doing With VoIP</strong>

It's been a long time since my last post, and I feel badly about that. Most of the week was tied up being on the road and preparing for the conference you're about to read about.

Last Thursday, I presented an overview of VoIP to an audience of RLECs and IOCs. This was part of the annual meeting of ANPI � Associated Network Partners Inc. � in Las Vegas. ANPI represents about 325 RLECs and IOCs, and is a good snapshot of what the roughly 1,500 operators in this space are doing with VoIP in the US.

The focus of the conference was on convergence and what it means for this market. These carriers typically have fewer than 10,000 subscribers, and many have less than 5,000. So, the economics are very different here, as are the needs of their subscribers. However, all these carriers are facing the same competitive pressures, and they were here to learn more about what VoIP can do for them.

ANPI is offering a practical solution and roadmap for VoIP. For most of these operators, VoIP is new, as are the competitive pressures they are seeing these days. They have limited means and capabilities to integrate VoIP in their networks. To address that, ANPI has developed a turnkey solution for members, branded as �No Boundaries�. This is a wholesale offering where they have put together all the pieces from various nextgen elements, including the media gateway, softphone, wireless access, OSS and QoS.

ANPI has partnered with vendors such as Versatel, myJabber, Brix Networks and WaveRider, all of whom are well positioned to meet the needs of this market. To support this as a facilities-based offering, No Boundaries would ride over ANPI�s core VoIP network, which is housed out of their co-location facility in Las Vegas.

Perhaps more importantly, they understand that they are a good fit for this market, and represent a realistic alternative to the legacy vendors many of these carriers have long been dealing with. Based on a show of hands from the audience � about 200 strong � about 60% are using Nortel switches. Otherwise, there was a smattering of Lucent and Siemens, and only a handful are using nextgen solutions.

I really think ANPI is on to something good here, and they are focused on educating their members about VoIP and why it�s important to their future. During conversations with members, my sense is that VoIP is still very novel to these operators, and they are facing more pressing concerns now, such as how to compete against wireless plans being offered now directly from carriers � as opposed the packages they�re authorized to resell. Or, how to compete against MSOs, who are starting to encroach their territory. Once the cablecos get in with video, voice won�t be far behind, and this is a real concern for ANPI members. Another big issue is the future of RUS subsidies, which are essential to the financial viability of many IOCs.

All these issues are real and daunting. Hopefully ANPI members are now starting to see how VoIP can give them the tools to compete, and this was the subject of my presentation. I certainly applaud ANPI�s efforts to educate their members, and utilize their strength in numbers as an economical way to give members a roadmap for VoIP, as well as providing the technical and marketing support resources that members will need.

Here's a grainy photo of me during my presentation...

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