In my Friday posting I mentioned I didn't have links to any of the articles mentioned there.
However, there was a link to the Friday WSJ article right under my nose. This is Shawn Young's piece on the state of things in VoIP right now. Our leading business daily in Canada - the Globe & Mail -runs a WSJ page each day, and on Friday, Shawn's article was front and center. So, I couldn't get the story from the WSJ website, but I can from my local Globe & Mail website.
Since then, I see that the story was picked up by several papers elsewhere across the US. One of these crossed my path - the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - but I'm sure it turned up in many other papers.
Sunday, August 28, 2005
Friday, August 26, 2005
Good Week in the Media
While digging out from moving on Monday, the press managed to find me and some good stories ran.
Today, the Wall Street Journal ran a Page 1 story on the overall state of VoIP. I was quoted briefly about the size of the market, while Jeff Pulver and Jeff Citron were featured more extensively, primarily talking about the challenges facing all VoIP providers in the face of steadily declining prices. Sure, the consumer wins, but one is still left with the big question about making profits.
Yesterday, WSJ also cited me briefly, again about the market outlook. This time it was in the context of the news of Vonage reportedly going IPO. This has not been substantiated, and I heard the same message myself in following up on this. Kind of ties in to today's WSJ piece, and it makes you wonder what the outlook is for all the "von-abees". No doubt, the low barriers to entry create a gold rush mentality, but this cannot last. The regulations are going to get tougher, not easier, and the window gets smaller by the day as the MSOs and RBOCs make their moves. On the other hand, all this competition - and choice - is great for consumers, and hopefully it will remain this way after the weak become separated from the strong.
Although I was too late to post about Google Talk, I was cited on both Wednesday and Thursday on this topic in Canada's largest daily, the Toronto Star.
Maybe I should move more often.....
I'd like to provide links to these articles, but you need to be a paid subscriber for the WSJ, and you need to register with the Star to access those articles. I can send soft copies if anyone wants to read them. Just drop me a line - jon@jarnoldassociates.com
Today, the Wall Street Journal ran a Page 1 story on the overall state of VoIP. I was quoted briefly about the size of the market, while Jeff Pulver and Jeff Citron were featured more extensively, primarily talking about the challenges facing all VoIP providers in the face of steadily declining prices. Sure, the consumer wins, but one is still left with the big question about making profits.
Yesterday, WSJ also cited me briefly, again about the market outlook. This time it was in the context of the news of Vonage reportedly going IPO. This has not been substantiated, and I heard the same message myself in following up on this. Kind of ties in to today's WSJ piece, and it makes you wonder what the outlook is for all the "von-abees". No doubt, the low barriers to entry create a gold rush mentality, but this cannot last. The regulations are going to get tougher, not easier, and the window gets smaller by the day as the MSOs and RBOCs make their moves. On the other hand, all this competition - and choice - is great for consumers, and hopefully it will remain this way after the weak become separated from the strong.
Although I was too late to post about Google Talk, I was cited on both Wednesday and Thursday on this topic in Canada's largest daily, the Toronto Star.
Maybe I should move more often.....
I'd like to provide links to these articles, but you need to be a paid subscriber for the WSJ, and you need to register with the Star to access those articles. I can send soft copies if anyone wants to read them. Just drop me a line - jon@jarnoldassociates.com
Thursday, August 25, 2005
The Joys of Moving in the Internet Age/New Use For Skype
In terms of big stories in the IP world, I sure picked the wrong week to move. Boy, it sure has been busy...
- Vonage IPO story - but not 100% confirmed
- Google Talk
- Skype opening up APIs to the web community
- Skype working with Intel for better voice quality on PCs
We moved house on Monday, and it's been very chaotic all week, and I haven't been able to post at all. At this point, these stories have been well covered by the usual suspects - Jeff Pulver, Andy Abramson, Om Malik and Mark Evans.
As these stories unfold, I plan to comment where I can add something to the mix.
That said, I'd like to share my personal ruminations about how central the Internet has become to our daily lives, especially for people like me. Moving is never easy, and I found it very interesting that among all the hundreds of material possessions one has to sift through and organize when packing, that my notebook was the very last thing to go. When all the packing was done at 1:30 in the morning, my PC was still up and running, and the last thing I did before going to sleep in our old house for the last time was to shut it down.
Fast forward to the end of the move, and what's the first thing I'm looking for in the new house? An Internet connection. Not the phone line, not the TV, but email and VoIP. You may think I'm nuts, but I suspect this is pretty typical for Internet users when they move these days. It made me realize just how dependent I've become on the Internet for my livelihood. Not only that, but also how quickly my working routine resumed once I was online - even without my landline from Bell. In fact, until yesterday, I was living mainly off our mobile phones for all our calls - business and personal - and really didn't miss the Bell line all that much. I think that says a lot about how things are changing in the world of communications.
This also reinforced for me just how convenient Skype is. It was certainly much easier and faster to get up and running than my Bell line - which, not surprisingly required a visit from a technician to activate the service. No truck rolls with Skype, that's for sure.
So, where does this leave the wireline incumbents? For now, they're probably ok, but these experiences really brought home the benefits and advantages of IP versus TDM. I'm preaching to the converted here, but with giants like Microsoft and Google getting into the game, the landscape is really going to shift big time once the mass marketing machines take over. IP is simply a better product, and once the world gets this religion, I really wonder how the legacy telcos will hold their own. I think it truly will come down to "innovate or die".
Oh - what's the new use for Skype? Home intercom. Really simple. We have 3 levels in our house, and my office is in the basement - it's ground level, so it's got a great garden view actually. My 12 year old son spends a lot of time on his notebook, doing games, and lots of IM. Skype too. In our old house, we were on the same floor, and it was real easy to talk to each other. In the new house, the distance is just too great, as Max is two floors above me. I suppose we could use the phones in the house - that's just....so old school. So, we just Skype when we need to communicate. Sure beats yelling real loud, or running up/down a whole bunch of stairs. I stopped thinking a long time ago about using Skype just for long distance. I probably use it just as much for local calling or in-house communicating - simply because it's where many of the people I'm in touch with are. To me, it's all about convenience - we all have a multitude of ways to communicate, but we almost always default to the path of least resistance - it's just human nature.
- Vonage IPO story - but not 100% confirmed
- Google Talk
- Skype opening up APIs to the web community
- Skype working with Intel for better voice quality on PCs
We moved house on Monday, and it's been very chaotic all week, and I haven't been able to post at all. At this point, these stories have been well covered by the usual suspects - Jeff Pulver, Andy Abramson, Om Malik and Mark Evans.
As these stories unfold, I plan to comment where I can add something to the mix.
That said, I'd like to share my personal ruminations about how central the Internet has become to our daily lives, especially for people like me. Moving is never easy, and I found it very interesting that among all the hundreds of material possessions one has to sift through and organize when packing, that my notebook was the very last thing to go. When all the packing was done at 1:30 in the morning, my PC was still up and running, and the last thing I did before going to sleep in our old house for the last time was to shut it down.
Fast forward to the end of the move, and what's the first thing I'm looking for in the new house? An Internet connection. Not the phone line, not the TV, but email and VoIP. You may think I'm nuts, but I suspect this is pretty typical for Internet users when they move these days. It made me realize just how dependent I've become on the Internet for my livelihood. Not only that, but also how quickly my working routine resumed once I was online - even without my landline from Bell. In fact, until yesterday, I was living mainly off our mobile phones for all our calls - business and personal - and really didn't miss the Bell line all that much. I think that says a lot about how things are changing in the world of communications.
This also reinforced for me just how convenient Skype is. It was certainly much easier and faster to get up and running than my Bell line - which, not surprisingly required a visit from a technician to activate the service. No truck rolls with Skype, that's for sure.
So, where does this leave the wireline incumbents? For now, they're probably ok, but these experiences really brought home the benefits and advantages of IP versus TDM. I'm preaching to the converted here, but with giants like Microsoft and Google getting into the game, the landscape is really going to shift big time once the mass marketing machines take over. IP is simply a better product, and once the world gets this religion, I really wonder how the legacy telcos will hold their own. I think it truly will come down to "innovate or die".
Oh - what's the new use for Skype? Home intercom. Really simple. We have 3 levels in our house, and my office is in the basement - it's ground level, so it's got a great garden view actually. My 12 year old son spends a lot of time on his notebook, doing games, and lots of IM. Skype too. In our old house, we were on the same floor, and it was real easy to talk to each other. In the new house, the distance is just too great, as Max is two floors above me. I suppose we could use the phones in the house - that's just....so old school. So, we just Skype when we need to communicate. Sure beats yelling real loud, or running up/down a whole bunch of stairs. I stopped thinking a long time ago about using Skype just for long distance. I probably use it just as much for local calling or in-house communicating - simply because it's where many of the people I'm in touch with are. To me, it's all about convenience - we all have a multitude of ways to communicate, but we almost always default to the path of least resistance - it's just human nature.
Friday, August 19, 2005
Excel/Brooktrout - VoIP Consolidation Continues
Light Reading's Mark Sullivan wrote a good piece today on the latest deal in the VoIP equipment space.
This is an interesting play as Excel's forte is carrier networks, especially TDM, while Brooktrout has been primarily an enterprise play. Brooktrout acquired Snowshore last year for pennies on the dollar, as Snowshore became an early casualty among the well-funded startups who failed to get traction at the right time. While Snowshore was squarely an IP play, their demise has taken them out of the race for hardware-based media servers, a space that is dominated by Convedia, along with IP Unity and AudioCodes. They have since changed gears, focusing on software-based solutions, which have some applications in the enterprise.
Another twist here is that Excel has also recently entered the media server space, and have had some good results to date. So, they now have 2 media server products on their hands, and it will be interesting to see how they handle the business, as well as the R&D, management, and intellectual property.
On top of this, Brooktrout partners with AudioCodes in the media gateway space, and it looks now like they'll go with Excel's gateways. Then there's the IP Unity connection with Excel, which will now have to go by the wayside.
Perhaps the only common thread here is geography - all 3 companies - Excel, Brooktrout and Snowshore are based in Massachusetts. Gee, now all we have to do is put Acme in the mix, have Sonus buy them all, and we'll have a killer Bay Colony IP cartel. The mind boggles at how many good Red Sox seats all these guys would have....
As the VoIP equipment space matures, this game of musical chairs becomes more complicated as vendors evolve from being single product offerings to multi-product players. AudioCodes is perhaps the best example of this, and inevitably some partnerships have to give way for the sake of the marriage. A bit like having to stop seeing your old girlfriend once you get engaged.
This is an interesting play as Excel's forte is carrier networks, especially TDM, while Brooktrout has been primarily an enterprise play. Brooktrout acquired Snowshore last year for pennies on the dollar, as Snowshore became an early casualty among the well-funded startups who failed to get traction at the right time. While Snowshore was squarely an IP play, their demise has taken them out of the race for hardware-based media servers, a space that is dominated by Convedia, along with IP Unity and AudioCodes. They have since changed gears, focusing on software-based solutions, which have some applications in the enterprise.
Another twist here is that Excel has also recently entered the media server space, and have had some good results to date. So, they now have 2 media server products on their hands, and it will be interesting to see how they handle the business, as well as the R&D, management, and intellectual property.
On top of this, Brooktrout partners with AudioCodes in the media gateway space, and it looks now like they'll go with Excel's gateways. Then there's the IP Unity connection with Excel, which will now have to go by the wayside.
Perhaps the only common thread here is geography - all 3 companies - Excel, Brooktrout and Snowshore are based in Massachusetts. Gee, now all we have to do is put Acme in the mix, have Sonus buy them all, and we'll have a killer Bay Colony IP cartel. The mind boggles at how many good Red Sox seats all these guys would have....
As the VoIP equipment space matures, this game of musical chairs becomes more complicated as vendors evolve from being single product offerings to multi-product players. AudioCodes is perhaps the best example of this, and inevitably some partnerships have to give way for the sake of the marriage. A bit like having to stop seeing your old girlfriend once you get engaged.
Thursday, August 18, 2005
Videotron's VoIP Heating Up Quebec Market
Kevin Restivo ran a nice piece today in the Financial Post on how effective Videotron continues to be taking business from Bell in Quebec with its low priced service.
The article talks about Videotron signing up 62,500 subs since launching in February, and claim to be on pace to hit 180,000 by year end. Bell pretty much has a monopoly on local phone service in Quebec, and Videotron claims that almost half of their subs cancelled their Bell service. That's got to send a clear message to both Bell and the CRTC that consumers welcome choice and competition for phone service. Of course, it remains to be seen if Videotron can make money with a $15.95 basic price point, but they're certainly winning mindshare with the consumer.
For those of you outside of Canada, 62,500 subs may not sound like much, but remember, the US is 10 times our size. Yes, Time Warner has already hit this number on proportional basis - they're up around 700,000, but their footprint is exponentially bigger. Videotron launched in only one market - Montreal - and at that, only in the South Shore section. So, just imagine the takeup they can achieve with a province-wide rollout, especially as Bell is distracted with its CRTC Telecom Policy proposal, and their Digital Voice VoIP offering being limited to 3 small Quebec markets.
No doubt, Rogers is closely watching, as they are in the same position to roll out cable VoIP here in Ontario. They've already done so, but in much quieter way - and not surprisingly, are not receiving much attention. Somehow, I don't think it will stay that way for long.
The article talks about Videotron signing up 62,500 subs since launching in February, and claim to be on pace to hit 180,000 by year end. Bell pretty much has a monopoly on local phone service in Quebec, and Videotron claims that almost half of their subs cancelled their Bell service. That's got to send a clear message to both Bell and the CRTC that consumers welcome choice and competition for phone service. Of course, it remains to be seen if Videotron can make money with a $15.95 basic price point, but they're certainly winning mindshare with the consumer.
For those of you outside of Canada, 62,500 subs may not sound like much, but remember, the US is 10 times our size. Yes, Time Warner has already hit this number on proportional basis - they're up around 700,000, but their footprint is exponentially bigger. Videotron launched in only one market - Montreal - and at that, only in the South Shore section. So, just imagine the takeup they can achieve with a province-wide rollout, especially as Bell is distracted with its CRTC Telecom Policy proposal, and their Digital Voice VoIP offering being limited to 3 small Quebec markets.
No doubt, Rogers is closely watching, as they are in the same position to roll out cable VoIP here in Ontario. They've already done so, but in much quieter way - and not surprisingly, are not receiving much attention. Somehow, I don't think it will stay that way for long.
IP Is Flying High - From Vanity Fair to Jeopardy
When we talk about ubiquitous IP, it's usually in the context of carrier networks and desktop applications. Two recent media citings about Skype and Jeopardy are good examples of how ubiquitous IP is becoming in popular culture, at least here in North America.
The Jeopardy citing was sparked by Jeff Pulver's posting the other day about seeing VoIP used as a question on an episode that ran last November. More recently, today's Financial Post ran a nice article discussing VoIP being used on Jeopardy as a sign of the times. Unfortunately, I'm not a subscriber, and don't have a link to pass on.
More interesting to me is the current issue of Vanity Fair, which has a nice piece on Skype. No link to the article here - you'll have to go out and buy it, and if you're a Skype fan you probably should. The article is based on the writer spending time with Niklas and Janus at 3GSM, and then over in Tallin with them and their developers. Nothing really new in the article for Skype followers, but it paints a good picture of how disruptive Skype is becoming and why the Yahoos and AOLs of the world have a rising urgency to court them.
Best part comes at the end, where Niklas talks about The Godfather being "the best management movie ever". He goes on about the scene where Sonny proclaims he's going to take out a cop for revenge. His ailing father points out "it's not personal - it's strictly business". Even though Skype has little business to speak of, at least in revenues, the article concludes that Skype has nothing personal against the RBOCs - they just want to redefine the business.
The Jeopardy citing was sparked by Jeff Pulver's posting the other day about seeing VoIP used as a question on an episode that ran last November. More recently, today's Financial Post ran a nice article discussing VoIP being used on Jeopardy as a sign of the times. Unfortunately, I'm not a subscriber, and don't have a link to pass on.
More interesting to me is the current issue of Vanity Fair, which has a nice piece on Skype. No link to the article here - you'll have to go out and buy it, and if you're a Skype fan you probably should. The article is based on the writer spending time with Niklas and Janus at 3GSM, and then over in Tallin with them and their developers. Nothing really new in the article for Skype followers, but it paints a good picture of how disruptive Skype is becoming and why the Yahoos and AOLs of the world have a rising urgency to court them.
Best part comes at the end, where Niklas talks about The Godfather being "the best management movie ever". He goes on about the scene where Sonny proclaims he's going to take out a cop for revenge. His ailing father points out "it's not personal - it's strictly business". Even though Skype has little business to speak of, at least in revenues, the article concludes that Skype has nothing personal against the RBOCs - they just want to redefine the business.
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
IMS - Everything You Wanted To Know But Were Afraid To Ask
UK-based Moriana Group has just published an extensive report on IMS, and has been in the works for some time. I know there is overkill on IMS these days, but this is worth a look, and I'll explain why below.
I don't normally post about market studies, but I've got a good reason this time. For those of you who do not know Moriana, they operate on a very different model, and their reports are available for free. It takes a moment to register on their website, and from there you can download PDF files in various formats and pieces.
Mac Taylor has been running Moriana since 2000, and has built a nice track record with other reports using this format - you can see for yourself on the website.
I should also explain this is different from the standard industry studies that focus on market size, market share, etc. The title should explain why - "An Operator Guidebook to IMS". It's quite long and covers much more than the market basics.
The report has numerous sections that stand alone nicely, and here is a basic outline of the contents:
- Section A - Moriana Group's overall conclusions and summary of the research, along with an overview of the IMS architecture
- Section B - vendor analysis
- Section C - resource list of IMS applications
- Section D - IMS white papers from various industry sources
- Section E - Vendor profiles
- Section F - Detailed descriptions of IMS solutions
If you really want the lay of the land with IMS, this is a great one-stop shop, and the best part is you won't have to spend any money!
I've only reviewed the exec summary so far, and here are the key takeaways for me.
1. We're not there yet with IMS, and the long term value proposition may not be that great. Mac notes that Capex/Opex savings and ROIs will be less than what is being touted now. Furthermore, mobile carriers don't need IMS to do most of what they do today, even with 2.5G. Good examples cited are SMS and push to talk.
2. IMS features such as IM and presence only work within IMS networks. Most of the mobile world doesn't work this way, so it doesn't address issues relevant to the majority of end users.
3. Legacy networks will be with us for a while, and IMS is a long term play. Mac notes that it took 10 years for GSM and CDMA to reach wide adoption, and these standards will not be easily displaced.
4. IMS is an expensive, unproven proposition, and new alternatives continue to emerge that cost very little and are adopted very quickly. The usual suspects are cited - Skype, Yahoo IM, etc. It's early in the game yet, but IMS is not THE answer.
5. Distinctly different visions exist within the IP world about whether IMS is a good thing or a bad thing. The SIP purists view IMS as running contrary to their bedrock principals of Net freedoms and decentralized architectures. They believe IMS puts network control back in the hands of the operators, and will kill innovation and lead to less choice for subscribers. I certainly know a few people who feel very strongly about this - right Jeff? Right, Henry?
I don't normally post about market studies, but I've got a good reason this time. For those of you who do not know Moriana, they operate on a very different model, and their reports are available for free. It takes a moment to register on their website, and from there you can download PDF files in various formats and pieces.
Mac Taylor has been running Moriana since 2000, and has built a nice track record with other reports using this format - you can see for yourself on the website.
I should also explain this is different from the standard industry studies that focus on market size, market share, etc. The title should explain why - "An Operator Guidebook to IMS". It's quite long and covers much more than the market basics.
The report has numerous sections that stand alone nicely, and here is a basic outline of the contents:
- Section A - Moriana Group's overall conclusions and summary of the research, along with an overview of the IMS architecture
- Section B - vendor analysis
- Section C - resource list of IMS applications
- Section D - IMS white papers from various industry sources
- Section E - Vendor profiles
- Section F - Detailed descriptions of IMS solutions
If you really want the lay of the land with IMS, this is a great one-stop shop, and the best part is you won't have to spend any money!
I've only reviewed the exec summary so far, and here are the key takeaways for me.
1. We're not there yet with IMS, and the long term value proposition may not be that great. Mac notes that Capex/Opex savings and ROIs will be less than what is being touted now. Furthermore, mobile carriers don't need IMS to do most of what they do today, even with 2.5G. Good examples cited are SMS and push to talk.
2. IMS features such as IM and presence only work within IMS networks. Most of the mobile world doesn't work this way, so it doesn't address issues relevant to the majority of end users.
3. Legacy networks will be with us for a while, and IMS is a long term play. Mac notes that it took 10 years for GSM and CDMA to reach wide adoption, and these standards will not be easily displaced.
4. IMS is an expensive, unproven proposition, and new alternatives continue to emerge that cost very little and are adopted very quickly. The usual suspects are cited - Skype, Yahoo IM, etc. It's early in the game yet, but IMS is not THE answer.
5. Distinctly different visions exist within the IP world about whether IMS is a good thing or a bad thing. The SIP purists view IMS as running contrary to their bedrock principals of Net freedoms and decentralized architectures. They believe IMS puts network control back in the hands of the operators, and will kill innovation and lead to less choice for subscribers. I certainly know a few people who feel very strongly about this - right Jeff? Right, Henry?
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