Canadian Podcast Series - Mark Evans on Fall VON

This week's Canadian podcast for VON Radio is with Mark Evans. He's the Senior Technology Reporter for the National Post, which is one of Canada's national business dailies.

Mark and I reprised our impressions of Fall VON, and added our Canadian perspectives where we could. We were also on the Blogger's Panel, and revisited some of the topics covered. Our call wrapped up with a look at the financial aspects of the market, and a review of Canadian vendors to watch, including New Heights, Versatel Networks, Iotum, and Eyeball Networks.

Mark is one of Canada's top tech journalists, and frequently breaks the cool stories ahead of the pack. His blog is well read and widely cited - if it's not on your blog roll, it should be.

Maxwell Smart - He Will Be Missed!

The blog isn't always about tech - I also love comedy, cinema, music, the Red Sox, etc. - and I just have to note the passing of Don Adams.

Get Smart is still my favorite show from the 60s, and it's been off the air as far as I can tell for ages. I don't know who controls the rights, but it's one of the few classic TV shows that I can't find on DVD. Maybe Mel Brooks and/or Buck Henry were smart enough to know this show would have some real staying power.

Jeff Pulver made a great reference to the show at a recent VON about how visionary the show was in terms of all the gadgets they'd come up with. And of course, nothing tops the shoe phone - who knew???

I'm sure we all have our favorite episodes - so many classics and great characters to choose from - the Laser Blazer, the Craw, Mr. Bob, Max's mother-in-law, Hymie, Shtacker, Bronzefinger, the Cone of Silence, Rupert of Ratheskeller, Don Rickles, the Tequila Mockingbird, Leadside, Smartacus, etc. I have to stop now - makes me just want to watch 'em all over again. They just don't make them like they used to. Agent 86 - we'll miss you big time!

Skapple - I Still Like the Idea - Here's Something Close

Prior to the Skype/eBay deal, I posted my view that Apple would be a good fit for Skype, which I reiterated post-deal at the VON Blogger Panel last week.

CNET News ran a nice piece today about softphones, and was a great feature for Mark Bruk, and his recently renamed company, CounterPath (formerly XTen - Canadian, btw!).

The article made a reference to portable devices like the iPod possibly getting telephone interfaces someday. So, instead of Skype, maybe it will be with CounterPath - fine by me - I still think it's a good idea.

"Rumors are already swirling that Google is developing its own software and hardware for a Google phone. It's not too difficult to imagine a piece of software as a plug-in for Apple Computer's iPod--turning it into the iPhone--or a personal digital assistant becoming a PDA-phone."

My only regret is that if this happens without Skype, they wouldn't call it the Skypod - which I think would be a great name!

Telecom Competition in Canada - How Much is Enough?

We are a land of compromise, that's for sure. This is one of my pet peeves about Canada - it works for some things, and not for others.

Our telecom regulator is the CRTC - Canadian Radio Television and Telecommunications Commission. The Globe & Mail reports that today they are about to embark on the latest set of public hearings to define the competitive landscape for VoIP. Apologies - I don't have a direct link to the article yet.

One of the key issues is to determine the level of competition from which incumbent telcos can be deregulated so they can compete on a level playing field with everyone else for VoIP.

In the telco corner we have the facilities-based incumbents - Bell, Telus, Aliant, etc. They say the level should be 5%. So, once competitiors reach 5% market share for local access service, their view is that they get to play by the same rules as everyone else.

Not surprisingly, the cablecos see things differently - Rogers, Shaw, Videotron, Cogeco, etc. They say the level should be 30% - once competitors take this much away from the ILECs, then deregulation kicks in.

Most sources peg the ILEC market share in Canada to be 97% or 98%. If that's not a monopoly in this day and age, I don't know what is. That's the position the cablecos argue from. Telcos just have too much market dominance, and the CRTC's position is that they have to let competitors have a fair shot. That's not unreasonable. So, for cablecos, having competition rise in share from 2 points to 5 points is hardly going to give them a foothold - which may well be true.

On the other hand, waiting until it hits 30% is quite a stretch. What if it never gets that high? What if VoIP just gets so-so market traction - which is my view for Canada - and competitors only take 20% away? Does that mean telcos never get a chance to play fair in the VoIP game?

The hearings should be interesting for sure, and I suspect they will reach a compromise. Both sides know how to play the CRTC game very well. The recent launches of cable VoIP have been successful - by Canadian standards - and will probably help the telco's cause in terms of getting things to go their way. On the other hand, the incumbents have done very little so far with consumer VoIP - aside from Bell's very recent launch - and the cablecos would argue that their dominance for local access is still basically intact, and this will only change if they get a fair chance.

Stay tuned!

NEWSFLASH - Another 1,000 VoIP Subs Coming in Canada

Wow, can you believe it? We're rocking now.

The Globe & Mail today reported that Cogeco's CEO, Louis Audet made an announcement along these lines at an investor conference.

Cogeco is Canada's #4 MSO, and have recently come to market with VoIP. The top 4 - Rogers, Shaw, Videotron and Cogeco - dominate the overall cable market here, and they all now have VoIP. In US terms, this would be like Charter saying they're expecting 10,000 VoIP subs in year 1. Oh boy.

That said, Mr. Audet says their numbers are on the conservative side -in true Canadian fashion - be safe than sorry - eh. And looking to next year, they figure to hit 8,000. Bring it on. Is this really newsworthy? Maybe because it's so small - but that's a different story. These meager numbers worry me, and say that Canadian cablecos are playing it very safe with VoIP. I don't see any Time Warners in this mix, and Vonage Canada probably doesn't have nearly as much to worry about as their parent in New Jersey. It's another example of what I've been harping on lately about the state of IP among Canadian operators. Someone - please - prove me wrong!

Fall VON Review, Part 2

I managed to blog at the end of Day 1, but it's been out of control busy since then. Most of the good stuff has been covered by the uberbloggers who are more "always on" than me, and if you haven't been there, and still want to read about the show, check them out - Mark Evans, Andy Abramson (especially his comments about the poor broadband quality in Hilton hotels!) and Alec Saunders. Jeff Pulver has some recaps, and lots of photos, so that's the place to go to see what show actually looked like! Also, Jeff has a terrific guest blog from Michael Powell, the previous FCC Chairman. Given how there was no FCC presence at the show - conspicuously absent, for sure - this posting is great to see.

Jeff's Keynote

I didn't see many presentations, but I did want to briefly summarize the main messages from Jeff Pulver's opening address, which really set the tone for the conference.

Transformation was the key theme for Jeff. He spoke about how the worlds of computing and communications are converging, and that's never been more true than the past few months. Makes you wonder if the show should be renamed CON, instead of VON - there's a lot of "C" words in what he's saying!

This led to comments about our lack of emergency preparedness for natural disasters, and how IP was the most reliable source of communication during Katrina - not just voice, but blogging and video podcasting. True to his roots, ham radio got added to the mix as another medium of last resort, which is totally true. To make this real, he noted how the American Radio Relay League had shown support for an idea he proposed - Internet Field Day - which is the Internet version of an annual event held by the ham radio community.

Another interesting topic for transformation was television. Jeff talked about how the Live8 broadcast this summer was a real proof point that IP is ready for video. Not only is the quality better than broadcast - at least for the mass market - but more people watched the concerts via AOL's webcasts than the various broadcasts on TV. I think that speaks volumes about how quickly and profoundly IP is becoming an agent of change. The scary part for the TV networks, of course, is that IP can do the same end-run around their networks as they are doing now with telecom networks. It's just another type of network, but the outcome will be the same. In short, as Jeff said, TV is just another IP application. End of story.

Jeff noted a great personal example of how the world hasn't caught up to IP and TV yet. While in a London hotel recently, he was able to watch TV over broadband using his Slingbox - but the hotel was blocking his SIP traffic for voice. TV takes up so much more bandwidth, but they weren't looking for that - gotta like the irony there.

From there, he picked up the theme that disruption will continue, which is good for the IP camp, and not so good for the old guard. To keep the momentum going, he reiterated the need to focus on Net Freedoms - pretty much echoed by Jeff Citron on Monday. On that front, Jeff noted the formation last year of the Global IP Alliance, which is focused on supporting "smart" regulation - easier said than done.

Finally, Jeff talked about how transformation is impacting his business operations. Pulver.com has become pulvermedia, and Free World Dialup has been renamed FWD. As he noted, it's like KFC - nobody wants to buy something that's fried. Likewise, nobody's going to buy something that's free, so let's just use an acronym.

FWD is also going in some interesting directions. He spoke of how their federation now has some 120 IP operators interconnecting their voice traffic. They also have a block of 500 numbers, provisioned by MCI. The tricky part, he explained, was getting these numbers to work if you're not on the MCI network. Finally, Jeff noted the newest service along this path of perhaps becoming the next P2P operator to become acquired - listyourself.net. It's a free service to aggregate phone numbers into a mega 411 directory - any type - IP, cellular and PSTN. So, if you've had an unlisted number but still want to be found on 411, this is the way to go. Same of course, for all cell and VoIP subscribers.


The Blogger Panel

This was a fun session, and I felt fortunate to stand in for Om Malik, who was not feeling well enough to make the show. Alec Saunders's blog has the best real-time account on this that I've seen so far. Great job, Alec!





Other Thoughts/Observations

Aside from Jeff's keynote, the video broadcast for Skype's Niklas Zennstrom was probably the most anticipated event of the show. I don't think there has ever been a bigger IP story than Skype/eBay, and here we have Niklas at VON so soon after the news. Well, wouldn't you know it that they couldn't get the video feed to work. How ironic! Just seemed silly that for all the tech challenges Skype magically overcomes, they couldn't get this to go. They ended up giving up on the video, and after a while, they just did audio, which probably worked just fine. I couldn't hang on, unfortunately, and missed it. Am told the presentation was pretty high level, and there wasn't any breaking news or clues as to why this deal really happened.

The VON event had a really strong international presence - over 60 countries - pretty similar to VON Europe in that regard. An International Lounge was set up to welcome these visitors, which makes a lot of sense to me. I had a chance to speak with many foreign visitors, and it's really interesting to hear how important the US VON events are for them. It's another validation that VON is where the IP industry comes to meet and be in one place. Along those lines, the VON experience is now going global. There was ample signage at the show letting attendees know that VON will soon be coming to your part of the world.

It's all about branding. Others have already commented on the key technology themes at the show - especially IMS and video - but I couldn't help notice how branding-oriented this space is becoming. Vendors I've been following for a while all of a sudden have a catchy logo, slick marcom, cool clothes, and booth spaces on steriods. I don't want to name names, but a few others are soon to unveil their new looks to keep pace. There must be quite a few marketing makeover specialists out there doing a booming business. To me, it's another sign of how IP is maturing, as little companies grow, as survivors begin thrive, and how the big get bigger through acquisition. It's been commented about how the show is attracting more finance people now, and the exhibitors want/need to look their best. It's bit like boys and girls lining up on opposite sides of the gym for the school dance, and nobody wants to be left standing alone.

Finally, I have to mention Tom Evslin's blook. Isn't that a great word? Anyone staying at the Sheraton - maybe other hotels too - had this mysterious looking message imprinted on their room key - hackoff.com

What is it? It's the title of his blook. It's a murder mystery novel that's being serialized in blog form. This is fun - it's almost too real to be fiction. Totally different experience from reading a paper-based book. It's all virtual, but very engaging. He's not the first one to do this, but I'll bet it's a window on how web-based publishing is evolving and starting to become real.

If you're trying to reach me...

I feel fortunate to have been added to the Blogger Panel at the last minute on Tuesday. I've had a number of people contact me since then, and I'm aware that my blog page doesn't have any contact information or a blog roll. I promise to get that fixed after VON!!!

So, until then, you can email me any time - jon@jarnoldsasociates.com

Otherwise, the show has been go go go, and the energy as high as ever. I hope to post later today with some thoughts on show.